‘You Ain’t Going to Win’: Carrick Was Right, United’s Numbers Show It

• Manchester United made two solo runs into Como’s final third in the first half, against 12 for Como, and had no shot on target before the break.
• Michael Carrick’s verdict after the 4-1 defeat was blunt: “If you don’t run forward and you don’t run back, you ain’t going to win.”
• United’s shot count rose from three in the first half to 10 in the second, with Como already ahead.

Nine First-Half Fouls, Two Solo Runs and a Staff Decision Not to Go Man-for-Man

“If you don’t run forward and you don’t run back, you ain’t going to win.” Michael Carrick said to TNT Sports on Wednesday night, and our analysis of the match data from Como shows why the Manchester United head coach reached for those words.

Across the first 45 minutes at Como’s Giuseppe Sinigaglia stadium, United made two solo runs into the final third. Como made 12. United had three shots and none on target, and they gave away nine fouls to Como’s two. The numbers describe a side that rarely got ahead of the ball in either direction.

The first half in numbers

Nicolás Paz put Como in front in the second minute, and the home side kept control from there. They had 62% of the ball and attempted 432 passes to United’s 249, completing 405 of them, a rate of 94%. United completed 223, or 90%.

Solo runs, the moments a player drives with the ball into a dangerous zone, tell the story best.

• Solo runs into the final third: Como 12, United 2
• Solo runs into the key area: Como 10, United 2
• Shots: Como 5 (three on target), United 3 (none on target)
• Fouls committed: United 9, Como 2
• Possession: Como 62%, United 38%

Nine fouls in 45 minutes points to a team arriving a half-step late to loose balls and duels. Andrey Santos was booked in the 25th minute. At the interval Carrick made two changes, replacing Santos with Carlos Baleba and Matheus Cunha with Amad Diallo.

A decision made on the touchline

Some of United’s first-half passivity was by instruction. Bruno Fernandes explained the approach before Carrick spoke to the press. “It was the decision of the staff to not go man-for-man,” the captain said, according to Yahoo Sports.

That choice has a cost, and the passing numbers show it. A team that does not follow its opponents everywhere hands them time, and Como used it to complete 405 of 432 first-half passes.

Running has been a live argument around the club this season. Supporters have criticised the side for a lack of running power, with some pointing back to a pre-season interview between Rio Ferdinand and Youri Tielemans, in which the Belgian explained that much of the work was not running-based. Carrick had not seen a problem with it, until now.

What the second half added

United’s numbers rose after the break. They attempted 10 shots to Como’s six, put four on target, won three corners to none and finished the half with 55% possession. They made nine solo runs into the final third and nine into the key area, and seven into the penalty area.

The timing weakens the case for a comeback story. Tasos Douvikas made it 2-0 in the 49th minute, Paz added a third in the 57th and Jacobo Ramón made it four in the 76th. Joshua Zirkzee’s goal came in stoppage time. Three of United’s 13 attempts were blocked.

Over 90 minutes United’s 11 solo runs into the final third sat below their Champions League average of 14. Como’s 19 were above theirs of 16.7.

Carrick’s answer

Carrick went to the 700 travelling supporters at the final whistle and apologised, according to Yahoo Sports. “I feel for the fans for sure,” he said.

He did not hide his mood in the TNT Sports interview either. “I’m angry, to be honest,” he said. “My whole life is wrapped around this. I didn’t like what I’ve seen tonight. I’ve not given my own position any thought.”

By Friday he had turned to the squad. In his press conference he said United had “gone away” from the identity he wants the team to show, and added: “We’ve had it, we’ve kind of lost our way a little bit if I’m totally honest, and we will get it back.” Bournemouth visit Old Trafford on Sunday, and Carrick has three full days to find an answer.