England closing in on extra Champions League spot

• UEFA will award two extra Champions League places to the best-performing nations across Europe this season
• England is the only country with every club still alive in Europe, leaving the Premier League in a strong position
• Germany looks best placed to take the second bonus place, with Spain and Italy needing a big swing

The Champions League league phase is finished, and the race for an extra place next season is starting to take shape.

UEFA hands out two European Performance Spots each year. They go to the two nations with the best overall record across the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League. In practical terms, it can turn a league’s fifth place from a Europa League spot into a Champions League ticket, Newcastle benefited from that route last season.

The system is built on coefficient points earned by clubs in Europe. A win in any of the three competitions is worth two points, a draw is worth one. UEFA then works out an average by dividing each nation’s total score by the number of clubs it has in Europe. The top two nations in that ranking bank an extra Champions League place.

The major swing factor is bonus points, and the Champions League pays out far more of them than the Europa League or Conference League. Teams that finished 25th to 36th in the Champions League still collected six bonus points even though they were eliminated. By comparison, the team that finished top of the Conference League table, Strasbourg, received four bonus points. That weighting usually favours the major leagues.

England is in a dominant position after the Champions League bonus points were added. It is the only country that still has every one of its clubs active across Europe, nine in total. England also collected 72.50 bonus points from Champions League finishing positions alone, leaving it well clear of the chasing pack.

It still is not guaranteed. England looked set for an extra spot in 2023 to 2024, then a poor run of results in the quarter finals changed the picture. There is also a catch in the current situation. England sent five clubs straight into the Champions League last 16, which sounds ideal, but rival nations still have teams in the knockout play-off round. Those teams can add points by winning two leg ties in February, an extra opportunity England does not have in that part of the competition.

Even with that twist, the gap is sizeable. German clubs sit the equivalent of 17 wins behind England, while Italy and Spain are closer to 20 wins back.

Germany appears best placed to join England in the top two. Only Eintracht Frankfurt have gone out so far, and Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund can add points in the Champions League play-offs.

Spain needed a strong season with eight clubs in Europe. Villarreal’s Champions League exit hurt them, and Athletic Club also went out on Wednesday. Spain still has six clubs active, but each win is worth less in the average than it is for some direct rivals in the race for second.

Italy remains in the mix after a slow start, even with Napoli dropping out of the Champions League. Atalanta, Inter Milan and Juventus can all add points in the Champions League play-offs.

Portugal never looked a realistic contender once Santa Clara went out of the Conference League in qualifying. Four clubs are still active, but Portugal would need a deep run from all of them to threaten the top two. Benfica can add points in February.

Poland has been one of the surprise stories. The position is inflated by heavy scoring in qualifying and by all four clubs playing in the Conference League. That will not last. Legia Warsaw have been eliminated, and there are no bonus points coming from the Europa League, so Poland is expected to slide further.

France has had a difficult season. Nice failed in Champions League qualifying, then went out early in the Europa League. Monaco and Paris Saint Germain are in Champions League play offs, but France is now a long shot for an extra place.

Cyprus has also popped up high on the list, helped by Pafos reaching the Champions League for the first time. With only two clubs still active, both in the Conference League, it is not a realistic challenger. Greece still has four clubs active but sits well back. Denmark is down to one club, FC Midtjylland, so it can be ruled out.

Key dates that shape the race are close. The Europa League finishes on 29 January, with bonus points then added for final positions. The Champions League and Europa League knockout play-off draws take place on 30 January, with the ties shaping how many points can be added in February. The second legs of the knockout play-offs across all three competitions run from 24 to 26 February, eliminating 24 more clubs. On 27 February, UEFA will set the full knockout bracket, which matters for the maximum possible scores and the risk of clubs from the same league knocking each other out. Round of 16 second legs take place from 17 to 19 March, and quarter-finals conclude from 14 to 16 April, a point where the extra places could be effectively settled.

In the Premier League, the extra Champions League spot would matter most in the fight for fifth. Arsenal are on 50 points, with Manchester City and Aston Villa on 46. Manchester United are fourth on 38, with Chelsea fifth on 37. There are only four points between Chelsea in fifth and Sunderland in 11th, so the fifth-place race could get crowded fast.