12 Betting Accounts Called Kane’s Ballon d’Or Top Five and Won £149,000

• France Football has opened an investigation and French police are to be informed after 12 Polymarket accounts predicted the exact top five of this year’s Ballon d’Or, per the Guardian.
• The accounts wagered more than $264,000 and made almost $200,000 (£149,000) in winnings.
• Separately, the full vote shows three national journalists, in Scotland, Greece and Ukraine, left Kylian Mbappé out of their top 10.

How 12 Accounts Predicted Every Place at the Ballon d’Or

It has been alleged that 12 Polymarket accounts bet on the exact Ballon d’Or top five before anyone announced it. Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market. Together the accounts put more than $264,000 on the outcome ahead of the 26 October ceremony at the London Palladium, where Harry Kane won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi. That was the exact order the accounts had backed, and every position matched the official result. Their accuracy has raised serious questions about a potential leak of confidential results, and France Football, the magazine that runs the award, is investigating.

What the Accounts Did

The accounts were found by Upside, a French media outlet. Its co-founder Raphaël Pautard says his team identified 12 Polymarket accounts created between 1 and 20 October. Their activity followed strikingly similar patterns, which led investigators to suspect a link to the same individual or group. Seven of the 12 had never joined any other betting market. Six placed their first bets 15 minutes after the account was created.

The accounts concentrated their money on one scenario: Kane first, Mbappé second, Yamal third, Rodri fourth and Messi fifth. That position produced the almost $200,000 (£149,000) in profit.

One account bought a contract on Kane to win at 37 cents and sold it when the price reached 67 cents. The funds then went into bets on specific finishing positions, including Yamal in third. That sequence suggests the account holder adjusted their strategy as the markets developed.

Pautard says his team also traced one transaction to a French platform. They shared the blockchain transactions and wallet addresses with the platform’s team, and Pautard says the platform confirmed it had identified the individual behind one of the accounts involved in funding the bets. That person’s identity has not been made public. The finding could prove significant in connecting the accounts and tracing the money behind the wagers.

A Secret Meant for a Handful of People

Upside passed its findings to France Football, which Groupe Amaury owns and which began organising the awards in 1956. The magazine is understood to have received confirmation on Friday afternoon that an investigation has been opened, with French police also to be informed. France Football has been contacted for comment.

Before the ceremony, France Football had indicated that only a handful of people knew the winner in advance. Players and their entourages, including those of Kane, Mbappé and Yamal, were kept in the dark. Against that background, the precision of the predictions and the amount of money involved are a serious concern. Former France Football editor Pascal Ferré said: “How do we keep the winner’s identity hidden? I think a well-kept secret is one that is shared with as few people as possible.”

The allegations concern how information could have reached bettors. They do not accuse any player.

The Vote Behind the Result

A full breakdown of how each nation’s journalist voted has also come to light, and it is a separate matter from the betting inquiry. Kane just edged Mbappé at the ceremony, after pundits were split over the Ballon d’Or in the lead-up.

Three voters left Mbappé, who plays for Real Madrid and France, out of their top 10: the journalists in Scotland, Greece and Ukraine. The Scottish voter had Kane first, then Yamal and Rodri, with Fabian Ruiz fourth. The rest of the list ran Erling Haaland, Dayot Upamecano, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Marc Cucurella, Ferran Torres and Messi. The Greek voter left out both Mbappé and Yamal, and picked William Pacho third, Joao Neves fifth, Michael Olise sixth, Gabriel eighth, Marquinhos ninth and Declan Rice tenth.

Only two countries, Mexico and Ivory Coast, left Kane off their top 10. Four left out Yamal: Belarus, Cameroon, Croatia and Greece. Rodri collected 10 first-place votes, from Croatia, the Czech Republic, Guatemala, Iceland, Nigeria, Serbia, the United States, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, while six countries put Messi on top. Mbappé’s own pitch for the award had already drawn criticism from Jean-Pierre Papin before the ceremony.

What Happens Next

The investigation is at its start. French police are to be told of Upside’s findings and are expected to look into them, and France Football has been contacted for comment. The questions ahead are who knew the order, how it reached the accounts and who stands behind the 12. The account holders’ identities remain unpublished, though Pautard says the French platform has identified the person behind one account. Until those answers arrive, the allegations stand as allegations, and Kane’s Ballon d’Or night carries a second story beside his speech.

WRITTEN BY

George Howson

George Howson is a Futbol Chronicle contributor and accredited journalist with over 20 years of experience following international football. A member of the AIPS International Sports Press Association, George has covered matches at stadiums around the world, bringing deep knowledge and first-hand insight to every match report and analysis he writes.

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