Pundits Split Over Ballon d'Or as Shearer and Carragher Back Harry Kane

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Harry Kane is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the men’s Ballon d’Or at Monday night’s ceremony in London, with Kylian Mbappe now second favourite after a late surge in the betting.
Alan Shearer, Jamie Carragher, Tim Sherwood and Danny Murphy all want Kane to win, Guillem Balague expects Lamine Yamal, and Julien Laurens, Stephen Warnock and Rory Smith would pick Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Kane scored 73 goals for club and country last season, and a win would make him the first Englishman to take the award in 25 years.

Kane Has the Numbers, Kvaratskhelia Has Three Pundits Behind Him

Alan Shearer has no doubt about the winner. “The winner of the Ballon d’Or should be Harry Kane,” the former England striker said. Guillem Balague sees a different ending. “Can you imagine this Ballon d’Or not won by a PSG player or a Spanish player? Impossible,” he said, and he expects Lamine Yamal to take it. The ceremony is in London on 26 October, and the experts asked for their picks are about as divided as the bookmakers’ market suggests.

The Case for Kane

Kane’s argument is built on goals. He hit 61 for Bayern Munich across all competitions last season, 19 more than any other player in Europe’s big-five leagues and a total last reached by Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored 61 for Real Madrid in 2014/15. He added 12 for England, including six at the World Cup, where he became England’s all-time leading scorer at the tournament. Bayern won the Bundesliga and the German Cup with him, and reached the Champions League semi-finals before a 6-5 aggregate defeat to Paris Saint-Germain.

Carragher said Kane should win, and pointed out that only Lionel Messi has scored more goals in a single season. Sherwood went further. “If he doesn’t win it now, then he never will,” he said. Murphy called Kane “the best centre-forward in the world for the last 12 months”, and Andros Townsend listed 73 goals in 65 games, 36 of them in the Bundesliga.

Paul Merson backed Kane too, with a caveat. He expects Yamal to collect the award “three to five times in years to come”, and said he would not be shocked if Kane missed out: “I wouldn’t be shocked if it wasn’t him.” Norwegian journalist Lars Sivertsen raised a different worry. “The Ballon d’Or is a popularity contest,” he said, and he wondered whether Kane’s low-key personality works against him.

Kane himself is staying calm. After Bayern’s Champions League draw against Arsenal last Wednesday he said: “It’d be incredible if I do. It’d be special for sure. I’d love to win it, but we will have to wait and see. A big night, but I’m not getting carried away.”

Yamal, Mbappe and the Spanish Vote

Yamal is 19 and could become the youngest winner in the history of the award. He won La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain, scored 25 goals and provided 20 assists, and made the most dribbles at the World Cup, 58, and across Europe’s top five leagues, 265. His critics point to a quiet tournament. He scored once in Spain’s run to the title after a hamstring injury in mid-April left him short of preparation. Laurens said Yamal “didn’t really shine at the World Cup” but still expects the Barcelona winger to win on style and spectacle.

Smith made a similar call. He thinks the award will go to Yamal as the player who won the biggest trophy, but he does not rate him as Spain’s most important player at the finals.

Mbappe sits second in the betting after a rush of late money. He scored 58 goals, won the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals, took his career World Cup total to 22, and topped the scoring charts in both La Liga, with 25, and the Champions League, with 15. He won no trophy with Real Madrid or France last season, and Balague has already written him off. “So gone is Kylian Mbappe,” he said.

The Kvaratskhelia Argument

The strongest pushback against both favourites comes from the PSG side. Laurens called Kvaratskhelia the best player in Europe last season and said he “deserves to win the Ballon d’Or for being the best player in the world all the way up to the World Cup”. Warnock said it will probably be Yamal but added: “my pick personally would be Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, he is unbelievable”. He also sees the obstacle. “I just don’t think he will get the votes with Georgia not being in the World Cup,” Warnock said. Smith was blunt: “Personally I would give it to Kvaratskhelia.”

If Kane, Mbappe or Yamal wins, it will be a third year running with a first-time winner. If it is Kane, he becomes the fifth English winner after Sir Stanley Matthews, Sir Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Owen, and the first Bayern player to win in 45 years. The ceremony is in London to pay tribute to Matthews, the first winner, and Merson said the venue “ticks another box” for Kane. The voters give their answer tonight.

WRITTEN BY

Jarrod

Jarrod Partridge is the Founder of Futbol Chronicle and an accredited journalist with over 30 years of experience following international football. A member of the AIPS International Sports Press Association, Jarrod has covered matches at stadiums around the world, bringing first-hand insight to every match report, player profile, and tactical analysis he writes.