Spain and France emerge as World Cup betting favourites as USA attracts surge of home support

• Spain and France head into the 2026 World Cup as the leading favourites among bookmakers and bettors
• Portugal has attracted significant betting interest in recent weeks, shortening in the market
• The United States remains a major liability for sportsbooks due to strong backing from home supporters

Spain and France will begin the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the standout favourites to lift the trophy, with bookmakers and bettors alike backing the European giants ahead of the tournament’s opening match on Thursday.

Spain is currently the consensus favourite across major sportsbooks, while France sits alongside or just behind La Roja in most markets. The two nations have attracted a remarkable volume of wagers, reflecting confidence in squads packed with world-class talent and recent international success.

According to sportsbook operators, more than 30 per cent of bets placed on the outright winner market have been on either Spain or France, with the pair also accounting for a significant proportion of total money staked.

DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello admitted he had been surprised by the consistent flow of support for both nations.

“I didn’t realize that this would be a steady stream of money on these teams,” Avello said. “Those are the two favourites that have been very popular throughout, but especially lately.”

While Spain and France lead the market, England, Argentina and Brazil remain among the strongest challengers. However, bookmakers have reported a noticeable gap in betting activity between the two favourites and the chasing pack.

Portugal has emerged as one of the biggest movers ahead of the tournament. Strong support from bettors has seen their odds shorten considerably in recent weeks, with confidence growing around a squad blending experienced stars and emerging talent.

Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead Mark Bickerdike described Spain and France as the teams to beat but acknowledged Portugal’s growing popularity among punters.

The tournament’s arrival in North America has also generated significant support for the United States. Despite entering the competition as a major outsider, the host nation has attracted substantial betting interest from domestic supporters hoping for a historic run on home soil.

Sportsbooks have reported that the United States is among their biggest liabilities in the outright winner market. While bookmakers acknowledge the chances of success remain slim, they have welcomed the enthusiasm surrounding the host nation.

“People are going to want to watch them and hope for them to win and bet on them,” Avello said. “Now that we’re having games in our country, and in close proximity in Mexico and Canada, I think it makes that aspect even bigger.”

One of the most remarkable wagers placed ahead of the tournament involves Haiti, one of the competition’s biggest outsiders. A bettor has reportedly staked $1,000 on Haiti to win the World Cup, a result that would trigger a multi-million-dollar payout and one of the greatest shocks in football history.

History suggests favourites rarely guarantee success. Since modern betting records began, only a handful of pre-tournament favourites have gone on to win the World Cup, underlining the unpredictability of football’s biggest stage.

With the tournament set to begin in Mexico City, bettors across the globe are making their final selections. For now, Spain and France remain the teams carrying the weight of expectation as the race for World Cup glory gets underway.

WRITTEN BY

Hailey

Hailey Russell is a football journalist and former Division 1 collegiate athlete in the United States, bringing a unique blend of elite playing experience and professional insight to her work. Currently competing at the professional level in Europe, Hailey combines first-hand knowledge of the modern game with sharp analysis across match reports, player development, and tactical breakdowns.

More articles by Hailey →