Spain Have Beaten France Twice Running and Believe They Can Do It Again in Texas

So there were four, and all four have won the World Cup before. France and Spain kick off the first semi-final of the tournament on Tuesday at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas, a repeat of two of the most bruising results either side has suffered at a major tournament in the past two years. Spain beat France in the Euro 2024 semi-final in Munich. Spain beat France again in the 2025 Nations League semi-final in Stuttgart, winning a nine-goal thriller 5-4. Now, with a place in Sunday’s World Cup final on the line, they meet for a third time in three summers.

France, Spain, England and Argentina go into this week’s semi-finals as the four top-ranked teams in the world, matching a feat last seen at the 1994 World Cup, when three or more semi-finalists occupied the top four places in the FIFA rankings. France sit top of that list and have not trailed for a single minute of this tournament. Spain, third in the rankings, have not trailed either. Only one of them reaches Sunday’s final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

France Arrive as Favourites, Again

France have scored 14 goals and conceded two this tournament, cruising past Sweden 3-0 in the round of 32, edging Paraguay 1-0 in the round of 16 and beating Morocco 2-0 in the quarter-final. Kylian Mbappe scored in that win over Morocco, his eighth goal of the tournament, level with Lionel Messi for the Golden Boot lead and one short of Messi’s career World Cup record of 21. Mbappe has 20 goals in 20 World Cup appearances, a tally that began when he joined Pele as the only teenager to score in a World Cup final back in 2018. He was substituted in the 77th minute against Morocco and said afterwards that he felt fine physically.

Didier Deschamps’ side are chasing a third successive World Cup final, a feat managed only by Brazil, across 1994, 1998 and 2002, and West Germany, runners-up in 1982 and 1986 before winning in 1990. This is France’s seventh World Cup semi-final, their fifth in the last eight editions of the tournament, and it falls on Bastille Day, France’s national holiday. Deschamps has said he will stand down once the tournament ends, win or lose.

Sky Sports data shows France as the tournament’s second-highest scorers, with the most shots on target of any remaining team and an expected-goals tally of 14.34, the best of the four semi-finalists. Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Desire Doue give Deschamps a front line capable of hurting teams even when Mbappe is shut down, something only Norway have managed to do at this World Cup.

Spain’s Answer Is Control, Not Chaos

Spain have reached the semi-final for only the third time in their history, after 1950 and the run to their only title in 2010, and Luis de la Fuente’s side have done it without their attack ever quite catching fire. Lamine Yamal, who turned 19 on Monday, has one goal from ten shots on target this tournament after coming in still managing a left hamstring problem that forced him out of the closing weeks of the season at Barcelona. Fellow winger Nico Williams has been reduced to a bit-part. Mikel Oyarzabal’s four goals, all scored against Saudi Arabia and Austria in the group stage, are Spain’s most eye-catching return, but he has stayed goalless through the knockout rounds so far.

What Spain do have is the tournament’s most disciplined structure. They hold the highest average possession of any side left in the competition, have completed more final-third passes than any other team, the only nation past 1,000, and do so with 83.9 per cent accuracy. Rodri and Pedri set the tempo, the tournament’s most effective passers in the attacking phase, with Rodri also acting as the carrier who shifts the ball up to Yamal, who has produced more shot-ending carries than any other forward in the competition with twelve. From the start of the 2018 World Cup to now, Spain have lost only one of 27 major tournament matches, and they have gone unbeaten in their last 14, with nine clean sheets in that run.

Yamal is in no mood to play the underdog. “I believe if France has to fear anyone, it should be us, in my opinion,” he said after Spain’s quarter-final win over Belgium. “We were the ones that knocked them out before.”

Merino the Super-Sub and a Record-Breaking Goalkeeper

Spain have not always needed their front line to settle games. Mikel Merino has come off the bench to score the decisive goal in each of the last two rounds: a stoppage-time winner in the first minute of second-half stoppage time against Portugal in the round of 16, at the same Arlington stadium that will host Tuesday’s semi-final, and an 88th-minute strike to beat Belgium 2-1 in the quarter-final at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood. Goalkeeper Unai Simon went 650 minutes without conceding a goal at this World Cup, a tournament record, before Belgium finally beat him in the 41st minute of the quarter-final.

That knack for finding a way through in the biggest moments, allied to the platform Rodri and Pedri give them in midfield, is why Spain are not being written off. Their attacking talent has flashed rather than dazzled so far at this World Cup, but the games that have mattered most have still gone their way.

A Rivalry With History on Spain’s Side

France and Spain have met only once before at a World Cup, back in 2006, when France won a round-of-16 tie 3-1 in Hanover on their way to that year’s final. Both nations have gone on to win the World Cup, Spain in 2010 and France in 2018, but it is the more recent history that hangs over Tuesday’s game. Spain hold an 18-13 lead in the overall head-to-head record and have won the last two competitive meetings, that 2-1 semi-final win at Euro 2024 and last year’s 5-4 Nations League semi-final in Stuttgart.

France know Spain well from those recent duels, and De la Fuente’s players know exactly what they did to earn their place in this conversation. Beating the pre-tournament favourites once more, this time in a World Cup semi-final that falls on the day France marks Bastille Day, would be the statement result of Spain’s tournament, and a third win over the same opponent in three summers would put an end to any suggestion that Spain’s recent record against France is a coincidence rather than a pattern.

Nine Games at One Stadium

Dallas Stadium, home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys, hosts its ninth match of this expanded 48-team World Cup on Tuesday, more games than any of the 16 host venues across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The Arlington venue has already produced one of Spain’s knockout-round comebacks, Merino’s late winner over Portugal, and it staged what Cristiano Ronaldo has called his sixth and final World Cup appearance, a 1-0 loss to Spain in the round of 16 on 6 July. It will also be the venue where Lionel Messi broke the World Cup’s all-time scoring record in the group stage, and where he added another goal in a group finale win over Jordan.

France have not needed a stadium built on late drama in the same way. Their route to the semi-final has been built on control from the front, with Mbappe supported by a cast capable of scoring without him. The last team before Deschamps’ side to have two players reach five tournament goals apiece was Brazil in 2002, before Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham matched that feat for England. France have shared their goals around all summer, a pattern that will worry Spain’s defence more than any single name on the team sheet.

What Is at Stake

The winner will play either England or Argentina, who meet in Atlanta on Wednesday, in Sunday’s final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. A third-place match follows on Saturday in Miami Gardens. Both semi-finalists have already made history simply by getting here. The last time all four World Cup semi-finalists were past champions was 1990, and the last time the top four FIFA-ranked nations all reached the semi-finals in the same year was 1994.

France’s attacking depth and Mbappe’s scoring record make them favourites heading into Arlington. But Spain have beaten this exact opponent in each of their last two competitive meetings, have the tournament’s most controlled midfield, and have a teenager in Yamal who has already shown he is unafraid of the occasion. Whichever side wins on Tuesday will carry a share of the Golden Boot race into the final too, with Mbappe on eight goals and Oyarzabal, Spain’s top scorer, still four behind him.

Kick-off in Arlington is 8pm UK time on Tuesday. Neither team has trailed once at this World Cup. By full time in Texas, one of them finally will, and only one will still be standing for Sunday’s final.